Moving Forward in Ukraine
It’s important to remember, that most Ukrainians (especially the ethnic Ukrainians) don’t like the Russians.
They haven’t liked the Russians since the Tsarist times, due to the repression and conquest that the Russians exhibited against the Ukrainian people, and they certainly haven’t liked the Russians since the Stalinist/Soviet repression of the 20th century.
The more Russia is going to push in the Ukraine, the more resistance it is likely to encounter. The only reason why the Orange Revolution failed, was because it had two leaders vying for dictatorial powers in Ukraine, in accordance with the cultural/political norms of Ukraine. The infighting between Victor Yushenko and Julia Tymeshenko cost them effectiveness and, ultimately, cost both of them their seats in favor of the only other leader on the plane of politics: Victor Yanukovych (the pro-Russian candidate).
This is going to be a tricky passage way for Yanukovich and Vladimir Putin to navigate, if they’re interested in respectively maintaining power and influence in Ukraine. Putin cannot afford to try to conquer and occupy Ukraine, yet he cannot stop the Ukrainians from supporting who they are going to support. He’s got to rely on Yanukovych to do what’s actually best for the Ukrainian people while not appearing to be meddling in their affairs. Matter of fact, it may even be best that he refrain from doing things like pressuring the Ukraine to delay EU talks all together and simply let the government of Ukraine to mosey between the two powers in Russia’s ultimate favor.If I were in Yanukovych’s shoes, I’d be working to improve the quality of life and well being in Ukraine while keeping the relationship with Russia very subtle. I’d even work to straddle between the EU and Russia, staying out of either of their realms officially. I would be focusing on maitaining and improving my relations with the people of Ukraine first, and then worry about balancing things between Russia and the EU.
So long as your society is independent in consciousness and loyal to your government, you shouldn’t have to fear of being overthrown very much. I wonder how well Yanukovych is actually doing in Ukraine considering the abysmal economic conditions all over the world. He’s got a difficult task to balance between Russian and European interests and, I’m afraid, that he’s siding with the Russians and Russian political methods too strongly and overtly to be good for his continued presence in Ukrainian politics.
Ukraine will, I think, not likely become a European style of democracy, in the strictest sense.
I honestly see it as being something of an inbetween the two extremes of Eastern European dictatorship combined with Western style democratic influence; a new category all together.
But, that is just my interpretation of how Ukraine is. It is ultimately up to the people who live in Ukraine to make these kinds of decisions for their own selves and their own sakes.
I’m just an adviser, after all.
And nothing more.
Think about it.